Has the RBA Put the Cash Rate on Ice? July’s Rate Report

As we enter the second half of the year, winter has well and truly settled in. But will interest rates continue to drop with the temperatures?

Was the Cash Rate Cut?

Unfortunately, despite a cool change coming through, things will be staying very much the same for a while longer at least when it comes to the cash rate. The cash rate remains on hold until at least August, at 3.85%. [1]

A cash rate cut would have marked the third cut this year, and a consecutive cut following May’s cash rate drop. As it stands, The cash rate is still 3.85%.  However, depending who your lender is, you may see a drop in interest rates, as some lenders have made a cut ahead of todays decision [2], and experts do expect a steady number of cuts in the second half of this year. According to the AMP Chief economist Shane Oliver, we could still see the cash rate as low as 3.1% come February 2026. “We expect the RBA to cut again in August, November, and February next year taking the cash rate to 3.1 per cent” Oliver said. [3]

What Does This Cash Rate Decision Mean for Homeowners?

No change in the cash rate was, of course, not the news many of us wanted to hear. However, as mentioned before, the cash rate is expected to drop around .50 percentage points this year, with us hopeful for future cuts next year. Lenders making interest rate cuts in advance of the cash rate decision is also a steady reminder to look into refinancing if you haven’t already.

If you’re on a fixed rate that’s coming to an end soon, it’s worth considering refinancing, to avoid the “mortgage cliff”. Switching to a lower rate can improve cost of living, reduce your monthly repayments, or even shorten the term of your loan, leaving you mortgage free, faster.

What Does This Cash Rate Decision Mean for Homebuyers?

Interest rate cuts typically lead to an increase in borrowing power for those looking to buy, however recent cash rate cuts have galvanised the property market, boosting home values nationally. If you’re looking to buy, high house prices and larger competition can narrow your chances and choices.

While your borrowing power may stay still, a cash rate hold alongside less market activity in winter may bring prices down temporarily in some areas, and lead to a less competitive market, giving buyers an incremental advantage. As always, it’s important to talk to your local MoneyQuest broker to ensure this is the right decision for you.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s next cash rate decision is on the 12th of August 2025. Reach out to us today and unlock your future.

[1] Bullock, M Statement By Michelle Bullock, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision. 8/7/2025

[2] Jeffery, D. Big four bank preempts RBA with early interest rate cut ahead of official meeting. 2/7/2025

[3] Ziffer, Chalmers, Stewart, Hutchens ASX rises and Aussie dollar falls as RBA opens door to more rate cuts after 0.25 percentage point reduction ABC, 20/5/2025. Viewed 8/7/ 2025:

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