Underperforming capital
A mixed bag of results and reports highlights the current volatility of Canberra’s market, but it’s not all bad news for the federal capital.
Ongoing lack of confidence about what exactly the future holds for Canberra is continuing to have an impact on the city’s property market. With a host of recent reports and data showing mixed results, confusion continues to reign supreme.
For example, the RP Data Rismark July home value index showed Canberra racing to the top of the leader board as the best performing capital city over the three months to July 2014, with a growth in dwelling values of 2.1%. At the same time, the result also showed that since June 2012, Canberra values have recorded a mere 7.9% increase – which places the city firmly in the bottom two.
The latest APM Quarterly Housing Report provides another example of the same trend. While it records an increase in house price of 2.2% over the June quarter, it also notes that Canberra is the only city to record a fall in house prices over the 2014 financial year. APM senior economist Andrew Wilson said that the results meant that it remains a capital city underperformer.
However, the news is not all bad. The June Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook reports that, while Canberra can expect a tough few years ahead as public service cuts get underway, the medium to longer term outlook for the ACT hasn’t changed much. It states that the city’s shares of Australia’s economy and population aren’t set to shift particularly sharply in the years to come.
Local optimism grows
On an even brighter note, REIACT president Michael Kumm believes Canberra’s market will see price increases and growth in the next six to 12 months. He is positive about the future and says the city is currently in the grips of a cooler “winter” market.
Currently, there is a record low number of properties for sale, he continues. This is because Canberra is seeing bigger population growth than most people realise. The latest ABS figures indicate population growth of about 1.6% per annum, which is higher than the national trend.
“Essentially, we are seeing 16-18 people moving to Canberra a day. And that, in turn, translates to a need for at least 50-55 new properties a week. We are stretched to our borders, but we are now getting infill in a systematic and orderly fashion. So new stock is coming on to the market steadily,” he says.
Kumm adds that more properties are being sold than are coming on to the market, which indicated a fair bit of demand. This combined with the low interest rate environment and only modest price increases means he is optimistic about the upcoming spring market.
Recently, he has noticed an increase of investors from Sydney coming into the Canberra market. “This might be because Canberra is affordable for a capital city and it offers good returns. Plus it is a great place to live – with fresh air, access to nature, good amenities and facilities including public transport – which attracts people. It is definitely a city that is expanding not contracting.”
Sydney’s property market continues to lead the pack, but another powerhouse New South Wales market – which offers steady growth and solid yields – is starting to attract interest too
Predictions of slowing growth in Sydney’s stellar property market continue, but – for the time being – it remains lodged firmly at the top of the scoreboard.
According to the latest APM Quarterly Housing Report, the Sydney market once again claimed its position as the best performing market, with a strong quarterly result for both houses and units. Over the June quarter, the median house price rose by 3.1% (taking it to a new record of $811,837), while the median unit price increased by 3.9%.
APM senior economist Andrew Wilson says that, while December 2013 was the high watermark for Sydney’s current growth cycle, the market continues to perform.
“Sydney’s median house price has smashed through the $800,000 barrier to a new record high. Over the 2014 financial year, the Sydney median house price increased by +17.0% or just under $118, 000” he says.
However, he added that, as with its closest competitor Melbourne, the annual outcome for the city is likely to be around half of its spectacular 2013 results.
Meanwhile, the latest RP Data Rismark home value results also showed that Sydney has continued along a strong capital gains trend. Overall, dwelling values rose 2.0% over the three months ending July 2014.
RP Data research director Tim Lawless says that, since June 2012, the absolute standout performer for capital gains has been Sydney where values have soared almost 25% higher over this time.
He believes that capital gains will continue, but that the rate of gain will continue to reduce – especially in cities like Sydney where affordability constraints are significant and rental yields are low. “Low yielding market conditions in Sydney are likely to act as a disincentive to investors, as well as the fact that the market is well advanced in its growth cycle,” he says.
With affordability becoming a more pressing issue in Sydney, Lawless says buyers are most likely to seek out medium to high density dwellings located close to the city rather than where they could afford to buy a detached home.
“Any slowdown in market conditions will be a gradual one. The real litmus test for the market will be how much buyer demand is apparent during the spring selling season,” he says.
Newcastle: an alternative NSW market?
Overall, the New South Wales economy is firmly on the rise, according to a number of reports and commentators. This means that other NSW property markets are starting to post some attractive results too. One such market is the Newcastle market.
Newcastle is Australia’s sixth largest city and has an economy that is performing strongly across a number of key sectors. Situated in the Hunter Valley, which is home to over 650,000 people – more than Tasmania, the ACT or the Gold Coast, the region is expanding rapidly.
This means opportunity for both investment and for business. For example, the government’s Lower Hunter Regional Strategy calls for 90,000 new residential dwellings over the next 30 years catering to 160,000 new residents.
PRDnationwide Newcastle/Lake Macquarie managing director Mark Kentwell says Newcastle’s market is buoyant and that sales have surged in the past year. Further, the consistent run of robust sales has lifted the city’s median price from $408,000 in June 2013 to $494,500 in June 2014.
“The sales momentum has not wavered and we are not seeing the traditional dip in transactions that occurs during the winter months. We see this strong sales trend continuing for the rest of 2014.”
Frenzied sales activity and the resulting price hikes in the Sydney market were driving some investors to look elsewhere for a better deal, Kentwell says. “Investors are finding great value and potential in Newcastle. We’re not far geographically from Sydney, but the pricing situation is quite different and more accessible for buyers.”
Urban renewal driving growth
State government plans for the revitalization of Newcastle are also playing a part in the growth of the city’s property market. Plans include the $94 million Newcastle Courthouse development, the $400 million redevelopment of the Hunter Street Mall, and the $80 million expansion of Newcastle’s airport.
Kentwell says many investors have taken note of the plans to transform the CBD into a dynamic 21st century regional city. “They can see the faith government and the development industry are showing through infrastructure and major projects, and this has cemented their decision to invest here.”
These urban renewal plans are driving the delivery of new apartment projects. But Kentwell adds that another key factor is the University of Newcastle’s $100 million vertical campus development in the CBD.
“The market is active, prices are trending steadily upwards, we’re undergoing a major urban renewal and developers are pushing ahead with their projects.”
Despite a surge in home buyer enquiries, investors are setting their sights on other markets in the Top End. This trend comes amid another strong economic performance for NT, but how long will it last?
Homebuyer enquires have shot up in Darwin and Palmerston, but investors don’t have much to do with it. In fact, the 30% increase in enquiries over July are actually due to owner-occupiers, while investors are targeting the off-the plan market, according to Rain & Horne Darwin.
Current market conditions have owner-occupiers flocking to open homes, while investors are more subdued as hundreds of off-the-plan properties are finalised, says Glenn Grantham, General Manager at Raine & Horne Darwin.
“Once these settlements are finalised, we are very confident that the excellent economic outlook for Darwin, coupled with the Federal Government focus on Northern Australia, will entice investors back to bricks and mortar in decent numbers within a year,” says Grantham.
“This gives owner-occupiers a 12-month window to make a mark before they will again be forced to jostle with cashed-up investors for quality, well-located Darwin properties.”
Is the economy nearing its peak?
The $34 billion Ichthys LNG project is accounting for 50% of current NT investment and this is expected to dominate the Top End’s investment agenda until its completion in 2016, according to the latest Deloitte Access Economics Investment Monitor Report.
This alone should be enough to support strong investment in the NT over the next couple of years, but beyond that there could be some tough challenges.
A lot is riding on the final investment decision later this year on the $13 billion Greater Sunrise gas development and floating LNG platform.
The main worry for the NT is its population growth, which is lagging other states and territories and checking activity in home purchases and constructions, according to CommSec’s State of the States report. The annual population growth is near two-year lows, at 1.69% and down almost 7% on the decade average.
But for now at least, it is leading all other states and territories on economic growth, business investment, unemployment and construction work.
Affordable housing takes off in Alice Springs
In an effort to make Alice Springs more attractive to homebuyers, the first development of units is being fitted out in Larapinta Drive as part of a $8.6 million project by the NT government.
It features 14 three bedroom units and 11 two bedroom units, built as detached and semi-detached dwellings. The aim is to boost the housing options available to prospective buyers and renters, because Alice Springs “desperately needs” more affordable housing, says NT Chief Minister Adam Giles.
Renowned for letting resources like coal do the heavy lifting for its economy, Queensland’s finances are becoming increasingly helped by other sources. Can they help secure its long term future?
Move over Clive Palmer. There has been a decline in mining investment in the Sunshine State and increasingly it looks like other growth drivers are essential.
In particular, the coal sector is doing it tough and unless the market conditions for coal improve (which isn’t something that’s forecasted) then Queensland will face a round of coal closures, according to the latest Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook report.
However, economic conditions in other non-mining related sectors are now showing “tentative signs of improvement”, says David Cannington, ANZ senior property Analyst.
“In particular, improved economic conditions and a lower AUD have provided a boost to Queensland’s tourism industry, with international tourism arrivals increasing in recent months,” he says.
“Housing market conditions have also broadly improved, although remain divergent across the state, with upbeat conditions in Brisbane and south-east Queensland, while regions exposed to the mining and resources sectors are underperforming.”
It is also important to note that struggles in the coal industry are being somewhat offset by a series of mega gas-related projects, says the Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook report. Furthermore, its project pipeline in recent years is relatively steady.
“That leaves Queensland less at risk of a pothole in activity between most resource-related construction projects finishing on the one hand, and most resource export volumes picking up on the other hand,” says the report.
These projects include:
All these projects will support a high level of activity in the next couple of years.
Brisbane bites back
The Queensland capital in particular is showing strong sales figures for this time of year, according to data compiled by the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ).
“Traditionally this is one of Brisbane’s quieter selling periods, but there has been a reversal of this trend over the last two years, as buyers grow more confident,” says Antonia Mercorella, REIQ Acting CEO.
Brisbane is also experiencing solid price growth, with house prices up by 6.8% according to the RP Data-Rismark Daily Home Value Index.
“Despite this growth, Brisbane has a very significant affordability edge over Sydney, Melbourne and Perth, where median prices remain much higher.
“With interest rates still at record lows, the outlook for Brisbane real estate is very positive and buyers can expect the market to continue performing strongly,” says Mercorella.
Cairns: a quiet achiever?
Over the last five years the Cairns property market has not exactly had investors lining up at the local real estate agents. But recently things have been picking up and may even go much further.
For starters, the Australian dollar is predicted to drop in the medium term which will be a welcome relief for this tourism focused economy, says the latest Deloitte Access Economics Investment Monitor report.
Additionally, Queensland’s tourism sector and savvy investors are getting excited about plans for the $4.2 billion Aquis resort complex at Cairns’ Northern Beaches. This would include nine luxury hotels, a 25,000 seat stadium, an 18-hole golf course and a casino.
Despite not being finalised, it’s generating market activity and upping prices in its immediate vicinity, according to the latest Herron Todd White report.
Recent ABS data also shows good news. Building approvals in Far North Queensland have shown a 38.8% positive change over the last 12 months, jumping from 752 approvals in the year to June 2013 to 1044 in the year to last month.
Before July 2013, it would have been hard to spend $500,000 on a new apartment due to a noticeable lack of unit construction, but times have changed. Demand has been rising since that date, with stock that was previously unsalable now starting to move, says the Herron Todd White report.
“Our prognosis is for the market to continue its consolidation and for the recovery to become more widespread, as the market continues its progression from a buyer’s market to a balance of power between buyers and sellers.
“For this reason the potential is there at present for astute investment into the Cairns market,” says the report.
Don’t write off the Wine State just yet. House price increases, rising confidence and boosts to land development and the construction sector are just some of the reasons to be optimistic
Anyone who has been following media coverage of the South Australian economy in recent times could be forgiven for thinking it’s on life support. A more thorough glance at the data, however, suggests a brighter future ahead.
Granted, Holden has been given its marching orders and the Olympic Dam expansion didn’t quite get to lift off, but let’s look on the bright side.
There were two key recent statistics that gave the real estate market hope for the year ahead.
“It is really positive news for the real estate market that the median price continues its upward trend on comparisons from the same quarter last year and the immediately preceding quarter,” says the Real Estate Institute of South Australia (REISA) president Ted Piteo.
Additionally, the unit and sales market posted a 1.59% rise in the median price compared to the same quarter last year.
Piteo argues that the key indicators which are driving the market are likely to continue that upward trend.
“First home buyers and investors are continuing to buy in affordable quality suburbs and this can only mean good news for families wanting to enter the market and for tenants wanting access to quality services and welcoming communities.”
Take me to the water
Looking for capital growth in South Australia, as opposed to cash flow? It might be wise to consider suburbs by the water.
In recent years, coastal suburbs have shown to increase in value more than their non-coastal counterparts, according to the latest Herron Todd White report.
“With an investment of $500,000 you could purchase a property in the Robe or Beachport townships with an ocean view. The better the view, the better the investment,” says the report.
In particular, transport infrastructure has also helped drive growth in the outer southern suburbs, located close to beaches along Adelaide’s coast line.
With the Seaford Rail Extension and the Southern Expressway Duplication nearing completion, this is set to improve public transport and travel time in these suburbs.
Piteo also lists the ocean and transport infrastructure as being among the criteria that investors find highly desirable.
“Morphett Vale and Aldinga Beach continue to rule the roost in terms of sales. Affordable suburbs that offer premiums to first home buyers and investors such as infrastructure, quality transport avenues and a life by the sea will always be highly sought after,” he says.
Confidence returns
The property market in Adelaide may have reached the bottom of its cycle but that’s not necessarily a bad thing, says the Herron Todd White report.
“Investors are now more confident that property will start to see some improvement in capital growth in the medium to long term,” the report says.
Indeed, the Property Council/ANZ Property Industry Confidence Survey has found that South Australia’s reading for the September quarter of 2014 increased by four points to 114, which is the second highest level since the survey’s inception in SA in 2011.
The study authors believe the recovery is largely based on expectations of continuing low interest rates, and the likely boost they will provide the land development and housing construction sectors.
The housing construction sector is in fact already revving up, both in terms of approvals and housing finance, according to the latest Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook report. Furthermore, unemployment looks to have peaked, public spending is resilient and retail sales are looking healthy (particularly when adjusted for population growth), it says.
For the REISA’s Ted Piato, confidence will return further once the effects of the Federal and State budgets become more understood and absorbed into the economy, as first homebuyers and investors will both be more inclined to enter the market.
However, CommSec’s State of the State’s report warns that without a kick-start to its economy, South Australia is likely to continue to struggle.
“South Australia is lacking a growth driver, especially as a number of public sector construction projects have been completed or are nearing completion,” it says.
Areas of Tasmania might be doing it tough in the property market at the moment, but if you look beyond the negative headlines there’s still a lot of potential to make money there
When somebody says the word “mining”, images of BHP Billiton, the Pilbara region and Gina Rinehart might come to mind but probably not Australia’s smallest state, whose resources sector in the spotlight for reasons some Tassie investors would prefer not hear.
For one, the Mount Lyell copper mine in Queenstown on Tasmania’s west coast region has closed, spelling the end of 200 jobs. In addition to being Australia’s longest continuing operating mine, it is also Queenstown’s biggest employer.
Secondly, the Henty gold mine (located about 30 kilometres north of Queenstown) has been put on care and maintenance for the second half of 2015, resulting in the loss of 150 jobs between December and next June.
The decision is a blow for workers, their families and the wider community, says Tasmania’s Minister for Resources Paul Harriss. “However, it is important to note that the identified date is still more than a year away, and the company’s decision to put the mine on care and maintenance while continuing to invest in mineral exploration gives reason for cautious optimism,” he says.
Furthermore, Queenstown is not solely reliant on resources, unlike a lot of the mining towns in northern Australia. Queenstown is also a popular tourism spot, home to a growing arts community, and the terminus of the West Coast Wilderness Railway.
More reasons for optimism
Overall, Tasmania’s economy actually looks to be on the up, according to the Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook report. There are three key reasons why this is the case:
Move over, the good economic news looks to be translating into strong house sales. In fact, the June Quarter Property Report revealed the highest number of house sales a quarter in Tasmania since the June 2010 quarter, according to figures released by the Real Estate Institute of Tasmania (REIT).
This included a 5.7% state-wide increase in house sale for the June quarter, which was up 10.1% for the year.
“Breaking these figures into regions, we see Hobart experienced a 23% increase, Launceston a 14.4% increase, while the North West Centres eased back for the quarter – 4.8% on the previous quarter, but up 4.4% on the same time last year,” says REIT President Adrian Kelly.
Additionally, Tasmania’s median house price went up by 2% to $311,000 for the June quarter.
“While first home buyers remained steady at 17% of all house sales across Tasmania for the quarter, we expect to see this drop back slightly in the next quarter, following the removal of the First Home Owner’s Grant on July 1.”
Business confidence in the state’s economic outlook has also been improving, according to the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. In a recent report, the TCCI noted that the business community’s confidence in the outlook for the next 12 months was the highest it has been for three years.
Melbourne’s property market presents conflicting and confusing signals that often leave investors wondering whether to flee or dive in
It’s a time of good results at a time of oversupply. It’s a period of growth and a time of contraction. It is indeed a tale of two markets in Melbourne.
Victoria’s capital continues to surprise observers with the strong performance of its market, yet that performance belies some of the issues bubbling below the surface. As in the Charles Dickens’ classic, the true tale is one of duality.
According to the latest APM Quarterly Housing Report, Melbourne’s median house price increased by 1.7%, while its median unit price went up by 0.7%, over the June quarter. This was a slightly stronger result than that seen over the March quarter.
However, APM senior economist Andrew Wilson did note that the annual outcome for the city was likely to be around half of the exceptional 2013 results.
This belief was supported by Residex founder John Edwards in his July property market update. In his view, the data indicates that the rate of growth in Australia’s recent market leaders – of which Melbourne is one – is cooling and moderating.
So while Melbourne’s market continues to post attractive results, the golden hour looks to be coming to an end.
Mixed market tales
Metropole Property Strategist’s Michael Yardney says Melbourne has seen about 9.5% capital growth this year, which indicates the market is performing well. In fact, he finds the overall strength of the market quite surprising.
“It’s a mixed market. Some markets are experiencing significant oversupply while, at the same time, there is a shortage of stock in others.”
This means that:
The contradictory situation is underpinned by immigration-fuelled population growth, which at 1.9% per annum is high. People moving to Melbourne want to be close to the jobs, while younger people want to be close to a range of lifestyle options. Hence the popularity of the middle ring suburbs which provide easy access to everything.
However, it is in the inner city that properties are being developed, Yardney explains. “And we have a planning minister who wants to ‘Manhattanise’ the CBD of Melbourne in readiness for its projected population growth, which presents both challenges and opportunities.”
The problem is that, of late, there have been some scathing reports on the state of Melbourne CBD apartments, he says. Issues to do with density and overdevelopment, as well as the size and quality of apartments, have been identified.
Further, a host of new planning regulations – which will limit development in established suburbs – are likely to add to the difficulties in catering to the city’s growing population.
While this situation could push prices up, Yardney believes there won’t be as much capital growth in the next few years as there was in the last couple. That level of capital growth was unsustainable, so it is good for the market to slow down to avoid a crash, he says.
“There are still opportunities in the Melbourne market. It has a few more years to run yet. The cycle will come to an end when interest rate rises kick in – probably circa 2016-17.”
Victoria’s economic scorecard
Meanwhile, the latest Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook states that the high Australian dollar has hurt Victoria’s manufacturing and international education sectors. In turn, this has kept the state’s unemployment rate higher than the national average and hurt job growth generally.
On a more positive note, the report says that Victoria’s strong population growth has helped maintain and lift the housing construction sector. This means that the “recent downturn in Victorian growth” is unlikely to accelerate.
In fact, the report states that good news on interest rates and exchange rates, along with rising wealth and strong population gains, should keep growth in Victoria “solid enough”.
The latest CommSec State of the States report lends further weight to this assessment of Victoria. It too notes the state’s strong population growth is sustaining home purchase and construction – despite comparatively weak commercial and engineering activity and relatively high unemployment.
Perth’s property market has recorded a distinct slowdown, with the rental market showing most cause for concern
It’s hardly surprising that Western Australia’s economy is coming off the back of a spectacular resources boom. As the resources sector transitions from the construction phase to the production phase, much around it has started to moderate.
In particular, lower worker demand means there has been a downturn in the jobs market and population growth has decreased. In turn, the Perth’s property market started to see a moderation in demand. Some reports show that there is now a distinct slowdown.
Not only do the latest RP Data Rismark home value results show a 0.1% decline in Perth’s dwelling values over the three months to July 2014, but new research from REWIA shows falling sales, prices and rents over the June quarter.
According to the REIWA data:
REIWA president David Airey says the biggest challenge in the Perth market has not been with sales and price, but with the rental market. The data indicates that times are getting tougher for Perth landlords with:
Airey says the increase in listings is significant – it is now up 43% on the same time last year.
“Also, more current REIWA data shows this has since grown further to more than 6,000 properties by the middle of July,” he adds.
Significant apartment construction in central Perth is continuing, with many of these apartments scheduled to come on stream over the next year. This could add to the challenges Perth landlords already face as they might contribute to a glut of rental stock on the market.
Commentators are saying that, while there is increasing demand for apartment living in Perth, investors should tread carefully when considering such properties. This is because the amount of such properties coming on to the market means there will be little upward pressure on prices for some time.
Property industry sentiment declines
Another sign of the changing conditions in the Perth market is a decline in property industry sentiment. The Property Council/ANZ Property Industry Confidence Survey index for WA has dropped from 128 to 123 in the September quarter 2014.
WA Property Council executive director Joe Lenzo says this is mainly due to the continued downsizing within the resource sector, coupled with the negative signals for the property industry in the state budget.
“The spike in the land tax rate and the drop in infrastructure spending in the budget are seen by the industry as an indication its concerns and interests are not being recognised by government. More action needs to be taken by government to develop a vision to ensure WA keeps growing after the mining boom.”
Not all bad news
While the boom time glory days might be over, WA is not facing a crash. In fact, the state’s economy remains strong and healthy – and should continue to be so in the foreseeable future.
According to the latest Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook, WA has largely seen a smooth baton pass from construction to operations, despite a recent drop in the iron ore price. This means the hit to growth is likely to be temporary as WA has growth options available in several sectors.
Further, the report points to forecasts of a huge lift in export volumes of almost 50% in the five years to 2018-19. Thanks to a smooth winding back of the construction spend, this means that exports are soaring while construction is merely contracting.
WA also has a solid portfolio of growth options (eg: gas, agribusiness) to tap deeper into as Asia’s boom evolves. And the state’s housing construction sector continues to be strong.
However, the report does note that – despite this outlook – there will be some testing times, and some short term bumps along the road, for WA in the years ahead.
Disclaimer:
This article is written to provide a summary and general overview of the subject matter covered for your information only. Every effort has been made to ensure the information in the article is current, accurate and reliable. This article has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, personal circumstances, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether it is appropriate for your circumstances. You should seek your own independent legal, financial and taxation advice before acting or relying on any of the content contained in the articles and review any relevant Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), Terms and Conditions (T&C) or Financial Services Guide (FSG).
Please consult your financial advisor, solicitor or accountant before acting on information contained in this publication.
Proudly Part Of
The Money Quest Group (MQG) is one of Australia's leading boutique mortgage broking businesses, with a network of more than 600 brokers nationwide. Known for their exuberant culture and superior support, MQG provides brokers access to a range of financial products from more than 60 lending institutions and suppliers, and exclusive access to in-house benefits and services.
© 2017-2024 MoneyQuest Australia Pty Ltd, Australian Credit Licence 487823